Ophiopogon risk intensifies to prevent the spike from falling

Business News Agency August 3 hearing Recently, there are many buyers of Ophiopogon in origin, and the production areas in Hubei have experienced floods again, and the market attention has once again increased. The market sources are moving fast and the prices have risen slightly. The market price in the Chuantong goods market is 145-150 yuan and that in the Hubei market is 128-130 yuan. As the holders are reluctant to sell, the prices remain high. By analyzing the data of the World Cyber ​​Center Information Center, the author believes that this species has a higher probability of falling afterwards, mainly from the following two aspects:

One, the increase is too large

Due to the weak initial inventory of Ophiopogon in the new production period, the price went up all the way, setting a record high of 150 yuan. The author's research on the price trend of the past year found that: the price trend of the variety is too "rule" and orderly, and there is no trend of continuous rise in rising trend, the rising angle has not been effectively corrected; Ophiopogon short-term price increase rate is too fast, the market Holders are more profitable and are more likely to be outscored.

Second, increase production

This year's production has increased compared to last year. According to data from Tiandi, the output in 2010 is 7,000-7,500 tons, and this year it has reached 8,000-8,500 tons. It is expected that the gap between supply and demand in the market will be small. Technical analysis:

Ophiopogon experienced the bottoming pattern of the three years from 2007 to 2010. In 2010, it emerged from the mighty main market, with an increase of more than 200%. In the figure, we can see that the prices of Ophiopogon appear to have risen in a pulse and the price has risen straight and did not quickly fall back, reflecting well the market conditions in which the Ophiopogon stocks were weak and the supply and demand were in short supply.

The author's point of view: combined with the pulse trend of the variety and the current fundamental analysis, the market after a small consolidation, is expected to continue to hit a record high of 170 yuan, then, I think the best time to lighten up shipping.