2012 winter cabbage prices will skyrocket?

In 2011, the blind expansion of Chinese cabbage planting area and the significant increase in yield resulted in the supply of Chinese cabbage far exceeding the market's actual demand for Chinese cabbage. After winter, the price of Chinese cabbage dropped sharply from the previous year and continued to decline. It is reported that the price of cabbage from the just listed 0.5 yuan / kg to all the way down to about 0.15 yuan / kg, rural cabbage purchase price is even lower, or even fell to 0.1 yuan / kg below. Many farmers have watched cabbage rot in the ground, not only did not earn money, but also lost the input.

According to the law of vegetable price changes in recent years and the fact that local governments did not have substantial measures to solve the problem during the collapse of cabbage prices at the end of 2011, a study by the China Circulation Productivity Promotion Center showed that farmers’ enthusiasm for planting cabbage in 2012 is expected to increase. Affected by the decline in planting area, the price of cabbage in winter 2012 may recover sharply, and the possibility of skyrocketing is not ruled out.

Usually, after a certain agricultural product suffers from “price-related injury, agricultural injury”, it is very prone to a sudden drop in planting area in the second year, which will trigger a new round of skyrocketing in the future, thus creating a vicious circle. There have been a few cases of different varieties of agricultural product price roller coasters in recent years, which have caused both supply and demand side damage. With the appearance of skyrocketing and plunging, relevant government departments must assume certain responsibilities. For example, some local governments often regulate and control the production of agricultural products, subsidize production, and even use administrative means to intervene in the selection of farmers' varieties. When the price of vegetables is too low, no action is taken, resulting in increased volatility.

How can we respond to the soaring price of Chinese cabbage that may occur in the winter of 2012?

From the government's point of view, relevant departments in various regions must actively and regularly track, statistically analyze and regularly publish statistical data on various types of agricultural products, announce the estimated planting area of ​​each species before planting as much as possible, and publish it for a long period of time. Demand. It must be published through television, radio, internet, newspapers and other media, so that the vast majority of producers obtain relevant information. The small-scale producers who do not have order production can use the information obtained to comprehensively consider the species planted in the current year to avoid the loss caused by excessive supply. In addition, relevant agricultural product industry associations in various regions must also play their due role and make active suggestions and guidance on the selection and sales of producers in the region.

In view of the fact that the supply of Chinese cabbage in winter 2012 may abate sharply, relevant departments in various localities shall also eliminate the psychological shadow caused by cabbage growers in 2011 due to losing money. Through practical information, they give confidence to producers and let cabbage growers know that The normal demand for Chinese cabbage is very strong. The main reasons for the unsalable sales of Chinese cabbage in 2011 were excessive planting and harvesting. Through the information on the planting status announced, stable production of producers is still a better choice.

For producers, they need to pay attention to the production and demand information of their planting varieties at any time. Under the current situation where information is more developed, producers are advised to update their information in a timely manner and take a rational view of the market. Producers strive to join cooperatives or cooperate with circulation brokers to consider sales in advance and avoid excessive pressure after output. The growers who have cultivated cabbage for a long time need to know more about the demand information through possible channels, and seek help from regional industry associations or other organizations to try to reserve buyers or expand their sales before harvest. In order to obtain a stable profit, producers must, on the one hand, improve the quality or differentiation of their own planted products, and on the other hand they should seek relatively fixed sales channels to ensure the smooth sales of agricultural products.