Agricultural wholesale prices continue to rebound

According to the China Securities News, reported on January 12th, after three months of continuous decline, the domestic wholesale price index for agricultural products rebounded significantly in December 2011, and continued to rebound since January 2012; the spot price index of international commodity prices The month remained volatile and the futures index rebounded significantly.

According to data released by the Ministry of Agriculture, the wholesale price index for agricultural products closed at 189.90 points on December 31, 2011, an increase of more than 5 points from 184.20 points on November 30; since January 2012, it has continued to rebound. As of January 11, the index closed at 193.40 points. The price of live pigs in 22 provinces and cities increased from RMB 16.56/kg at the end of November 2011 to RMB 17.25/kg on December 30, 2011 and continued to rise to RMB 17.42/kg on January 6, 2012, but remained low. In the third quarter of 2011, it was close to a high of RMB 20/kg.

With regard to international commodity prices, as the European debt crisis has not been resolved, global risk aversion continues to be at a high level, and international commodity prices have oscillated in December 2011. As of December 30, 2011, the CRB spot index and futures index closed at 482.01 points and 563.00 points, respectively, with different degrees of decline from 489.92 points and 584.22 points on November 30th. Since January 2012, the CRB spot index has oscillated slightly, and the CRB futures index has rebounded significantly. As of January 10, the two sides have closed at 483.00 points and 585.12 points respectively. The rebound of the CRB futures index may be due to the expected rebound of commodity prices in the international oil price station.

Analysts pointed out that the domestic agricultural wholesale price index has continued to rise since the beginning of this month, mainly due to the recent Spring Festival approaching price disturbances, which is a normal phenomenon, and the current index still has a small distance compared to the high point in September 2011. Domestic inflation may not cause much pressure. The upcoming December 12 inflation data, market participants generally expect CPI at 4%; if inflation continues to fall, it is expected to strengthen the logic of "inflation down - monetary policy relaxation - liquidity improvement".