The price of live pigs rose sharply in the third quarter, and the late rise will quickly drop back

Due to the decline in pig slaughter, the high cost of raising pigs, and the government's purchasing and storage effects, the price of live pigs rose sharply in July. In August, due to the increase in the number of live pigs and the relatively high temperature of pork, the demand for pork prices is expected to slow down significantly.

First, the live pig market operation (a) live pig prices rose sharply. According to monitoring, the average slaughter pig price for the national aquaculture company in July was 11.75 yuan/kg, up 16.3% from June and 9.9% from the same period of last year.

In terms of regions, prices in Tianjin, Zhejiang, Shanghai, and Beijing rank first, at 12.92 yuan/kg, 12.86 yuan/kg, 12.77 yuan/kg, and 12.73 yuan/kg respectively; Yunnan, Guizhou, and Chongqing are the lowest, at 10.43 yuan/kg respectively. , 10.11 yuan / kg and 10.04 yuan / kg. All 29 regions monitored rose, while prices in eight regions such as Jilin and Heilongjiang rose by more than 20%, while Chongqing only rose by 0.4%.

(b) The number of live pigs increased slightly. According to monitoring, at the end of July, the number of live pigs in the national aquaculture enterprises increased by 1.4% from the end of June, and increased by 2.4% from the same period of last year. Among them, large pigs over 60 kilograms increased by 6.1% month-on-month, sows increased by 0.9%, piglets increased by 0.1%, gilts decreased by 0.2%, and 25-60 kilograms of medium and small pigs decreased by 2.2%.

(C) Slaughter of pigs decreased slightly. According to monitoring, the amount of fattening pigs slaughtered by domestic enterprises in July fell by 5.4% compared with June. Among them, Heilongjiang and Guangdong had more growth, with an increase of 13.3% and 11.1% respectively; Jilin, Anhui, Yunnan, Sichuan, and Jiangsu had more declines of 31.7%, 17.3%, 17.1%, 13.6%, and 13.5% respectively. In late July, Sichuan, Jilin and other floods affected pig farm water consumption. Some aquaculture companies sold a large number of live pigs and the slaughter volume increased by 42.1% and 41.8%, respectively.

(d) Pork prices rose faster. According to monitoring, the average ex-factory price of white meat in slaughter enterprises in China was 15.06 yuan/kg in July, which was 11.4% higher than that in June and 7.3% higher than the same period of last year. The average wholesale price of fresh pork in 36 large and medium-sized cities nationwide was 15.65 yuan in the same period. /kg, up 7.3% from June, and up 4.0% over the same period of last year. The quarterly increase in pork factory and wholesale prices accelerated by 11.3 percentage points and 7.1 percentage points from June.

(e) Strong rebound in pig food prices. According to monitoring, the average pig-to-farm ratio for thousands of aquaculture enterprises in China was 5.7:1 in July, a rise of 0.75 points from June and a decrease of 0.48 points from the same period of last year. The monitored 29 regions all rose. Among them, the pig food ratio of the three provinces of the eastern China ranks in the top three, and nearly one third of the regions are above the breakeven point (6:1). The average revenue of slaughter pigs slaughtered by a thousand farms nationwide this month was about 115 yuan, of which the eastern three provinces exceeded 250 yuan.

Second, the main reason for the increase in the price of pigs is that the amount of pigs slaughtered is reduced. This year's spring weather was abnormal, and serious pig disease occurred in most of the major producing areas represented by the Northeast. The survival rate of piglets was low, resulting in the current shortage of large pigs. In addition, floods occurred in many provinces in southern China this month. Live pigs were not transported smoothly. Some branch purchasers of large-scale slaughter companies reported that local pig supply even broke. In addition, the price of pigs has gradually increased, and aquaculture companies have generally reduced the amount of pigs slaughtered.

The second is the cost of pig support. Two aspects of pig raising costs continue to support pig prices. First, due to the anticipated impact of production cuts, grain prices have continued to rise this year. The monitoring data showed that the national corn price at the end of July increased by 7.4% from the beginning of the year and rose by 14.6% from the same period of last year. Second, as the economy recovers, the number of migrant workers in cities has increased, and the farming industry has been strained. The wages of the employed staff have also increased.

The third is the government's collection and support of the city. At the end of June, the government started the fifth batch of frozen meat storage and storage. Compared with the slight increase in the effect of the start of storage and storage in early April, with the increase in the amount of frozen meat stored, the market's regulation and guidance will continue to increase. In addition, in July, pork sales volume of key monitoring retail enterprises nationwide increased by 1.9% from June, and a slight increase in sales also boosted pork prices.

III. Market Forecast in August From the perspective of market supply, the number of pigs in large-scale aquaculture enterprises in China increased by 6.1% month-on-month in August. However, at present, the aquaculture companies are reluctant to sell and they are expected to have a smaller number of live pigs. In terms of pork demand, compared with the off-season in July, pork demand in August will increase due to the beginning of the autumn and the end of the month.

At present, pig-breeding companies have achieved profitability. The profit of one pig in some of the higher-priced regions has exceeded 250 yuan, and pig-raising confidence has gradually recovered, which has met the government's target of purchasing and storage policies for market regulation. In the short term, similar policies may not be introduced, and later policy effects will also be weakened.

Based on the above analysis, hog prices are expected to continue rising in August, but the ring increase will fall sharply. Taking into account that the rural areas in the end of the month to raise tuition to focus on the sale of pigs, prices may fall back.