The first three quarters of the data are in line with the expected pharmaceutical sales growth of 22.4% year-on-year

Business Club October 22 News

Editor's Note: The data released by the National Bureau of Statistics yesterday showed that in the first three quarters, consumer prices rose by 2.9% year-on-year. Among them, the September CPI rose 3.6% year-on-year, up 0.6% from the previous quarter. Analysts generally believe that the economic data in September as a whole is in line with expectations, and the economy has been better consolidated. It will continue to develop in the expected direction of macro-control and will not lead to further tightening of monetary policy, affecting the neutral stock market's preference.

It is worth noting that in the first three quarters, the total retail sales of social consumer goods was 111.02 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.3%, and the steady and relatively rapid growth was achieved. Hot commodities continued to sell well and became a major highlight of the economic data in the third quarter. This edition from the perspective of consumption, sort out the macro data for the first three quarters, and tap the top five industry investment opportunities in the year-on-year growth period for investors' reference.

Medicine's pharmaceutical sales from January to September increased by 22.4% year-on-year

Statistics show that in September, the total sales volume of Chinese and Western medicines was 27.9 billion yuan, an increase of 20.6% year-on-year; from January to September, the total sales volume of Chinese and Western medicines was 215.1 billion yuan, an increase of 22.4% year-on-year. From the perspective of consumer prices, health care and personal products prices rose by 3.4% in September, up 2.9% from January to September.

Judging from the current fundamentals, economic growth, population aging, urbanization, and new medical reforms have not changed the four major factors supporting the mid- to long-term development of the pharmaceutical sector. Therefore, the roots of the pharmaceutical sector's gold decade are still firmly established. As one of the few A-shares that has the characteristics of both consumption and emerging industries, the mid- to long-term over-allotment of the pharmaceutical sector is still an important option to outperform the general trend.

According to relevant statistical data, the income, operating profit (excluding non-recurring investment income), net profit, net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses of listed pharmaceutical companies in the first half of this year increased by 27%, 40%, 46% and 46% respectively.

Market analysts analyzed that during the Twelfth Five-Year Plan period, the specific plans for the bio-industries will vigorously develop major varieties of innovative drugs such as biotechnology drugs, new vaccines and diagnostic reagents, chemical drugs, and modern Chinese medicines that are mainly used for the prevention and treatment of major diseases, and promote the biomedical industry. Level. Accelerate the development and industrialization of advanced medical equipment, medical materials and other biomedical engineering products, and promote the development of scale.

Therefore, strategic emerging industries are an important direction for the development of the country, and the proportion of GDP will reach 15% by the year 2020. It represents the country’s determination to develop science and technology and industrial upgrading. Guotai Junan believes that from a planning perspective, Hualan Bio, Tiantan Bio, Kehua Bio, Hengrui Pharmaceutical, Hisun Pharmaceutical, Kangyuan Pharmaceutical, and Tasly Lepu Medical will benefit from the new industry planning.

CITIC Securities stated that under the background of high valuation, investors can look for multi-year varieties, such as Tasly, Shanghai Pharmaceuticals, and Kangzhi Pharmaceutical, whose performance is expected to exceed expectations and there are more catalysts; personnel changes promote business performance and have internal integration expectations. Baiyunshan, Guangzhou Pharmaceutical; valuation of attractive healthy yuan, Shuanghe Pharmaceutical, China Resources Sanjiu, Kangmei Pharmaceutical, Zhongheng Group, Lukang Pharmaceutical.

Haitong Securities advises excavators from six aspects: First, to fight inflation expectations, high-growth resource-based companies, such as Kangmei Pharmaceutical, Dong-E Ejiao; second, high barriers to entry, rapid growth in the industry, such as Lepu medical, love Ophthalmology; third, companies with large diseases, relatively large market space, such as Furui shares; fourth, the use of over-raised funds, mergers and acquisitions are expected to be strong, such as Lepu medical, Hai Purui; fifth, medical reform to promote the growth of performance Pharmacopeial and Chinese medicine companies, such as China Resources Sanjiu, Tasly, and Livzon Group; Fifth, high-barrier, steadily increasing anesthetic companies such as Renfu Pharmaceutical and Enhua Pharmaceutical; sixth, focusing on the field of veterinary drugs , Technical marketing, such as Rip Biological.

The production price of agricultural products from January to September increased 8.9% year-on-year

The third quarter data shows that the agricultural production situation is better and the autumn grain is expected to increase more production. The food production in the whole year is expected to be harvested again. In the first three quarters, the output of pork, cattle, sheep and poultry was 54.39 million tons, an increase of 2.6% year-on-year, of which pork production was 35.89 million tons, an increase of 2.7%. From the perspective of consumer prices, from January to September, the production price of agricultural products increased by 8.9% year-on-year.

Market participants believe that due to the strong consumer spending on holidays, the prices of meat and food and other agricultural products have risen to a certain extent. In addition, the prices of vegetables and fruits have been affected by the cooler weather and holiday factors, and the increase has also been relatively large. These have led to a certain extent. The price of agricultural products rose in September.

According to Xinhua News, agricultural products have experienced global price increases. South Korea's "kimchi crisis" and Egypt's "tomato crisis" have seen Russia's potatoes rise by nearly 70% since the beginning of the year. The rise in the prices of agricultural products in the United States and the European Union is gradually spreading from the futures market to the spot market...

Recently, with regard to agricultural products whose prices are currently fluctuating, relevant departments have begun to use differential reserve strategies for price control. According to reports, in view of high sugar prices, the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Commerce, and the Ministry of Finance decided to arrange the national reserve of sugar in batches. On October 22, the first batch of 210,000 tons will be placed on the market and Increase the number of delivery according to the situation. The Ministry of Commerce also pointed out in the announcement: "At present, the state reserves are rich in sugar stocks."

China Merchants Securities pointed out that the reason for the price increase of agricultural products can be attributed to the imbalance between supply and demand due to production cuts. Among them, the "natural disaster" is the cause of rising food prices at home and abroad. Frequent disasters are the main reason for the sharp increase in domestic food prices this year. At the same time, they also increase the possible impact of future natural disasters on the world. However, the disasters in the world in the third quarter still exceeds expectations, and they have dominated the rise in food prices. The droughts in Brazil, Russia, and Canada, and the floods in India and Pakistan have reduced food production in 2010/11, which was originally expected to grow by 2%, to 1-2%, and the ratio of inventory consumption has dropped to the third low point in nearly 25 years. . In addition, the ban on exports by food exporters such as Russia after the disaster has also aggravated the rise in food prices.

Second, the relaxation of global liquidity will lead to a rise in asset prices. After a strong rebound in the first half of the year, the U.S. dollar index fell into a downturn. As the U.S. economic recovery is lower than the public expects, the Obama administration will have to rejuvenate the economy, promote employment, and restore its reputation for economic governance. It only resorts to the devaluation of the U.S. dollar. In the monetary policy outlook, there are few factors that can prevent the dollar from falling further.

China Merchants Securities in the fourth quarter of the industry's investment strategy is expected in the fourth quarter of downstream meat prices, the upper reaches of food prices fluctuated. At the same time maintain the industry "recommended" rating. It indicated that after the sharp increase in the third quarter, the upstream and downstream sectors that directly benefited from inflation all achieved greater gains, and the turnaround in meat and other intermediate industries that have brought food prices and food price shocks has already taken place. Strong recommendation of the feed giant's new hope, the rapid growth of the service feed Xinxing Haida Group, the strong marketing premix leader Dabei Agriculture and Dongling Grain & Oil, which has benefited from the increased demand for soybean meal; Good Scorpion Island and Shengnong Development, an aquaculture company that benefited from the rise in chicken prices; pays due attention to SDIC Zhonglu.

January-September Sales of Home Appliances Significantly Increase 28.1% Year-on-Year

National Bureau of Statistics data show that from January to September, the total retail sales of household appliances was 111,00.00 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.3%. Among them, household appliances and audio-visual equipment, total sales in September reached 33.4 billion yuan, an increase of 28.5%, January-September sales reached 279.0 billion yuan, an increase of 28.1%.

Some analysts pointed out that industries or companies that benefit from inflation expectations usually have three characteristics: they must have consumer goods, a balance between supply and demand, and high industry concentration. The white power industry has these three characteristics. The higher concentration of the industry allows leading companies to grasp the pricing power. They can boost the price of household appliances through continuous introduction of new products, and will benefit from inflation expectations.

The continuous high growth of air conditioners has constantly corrected the negative expectations brought about by the regulation of real estate, and the properties of consumer goods have become prominent. It is still a valuation depression. In September, the air-conditioned domestic sales amounted to 4.47 million units, an increase of 30.3% year-on-year, and the growth rate declined slightly from the high point formed in August due to the restocking effect, but it still maintained a good growth trend. It is expected that in the fourth quarter, the duopoly will continue to pressure the stock market. The negative industry expectations brought about by real estate regulation at the beginning of the year are being constantly revised by fundamentals. The linkage between the trend in the air-conditioning segment and the real estate sector has begun to weaken, and the attributes of consumer goods have started to increase. It is a valuation depression in the context of large spending.

With the arrival of the peak season of washing machines, the growth in the rural market exceeded expectations. It is recommended that the fourth quarter be focused. According to industry online statistics, sales of washing machines in August were 2.99 million units, an increase of 36.4% year-on-year, reaching a record high since 2008. It is worth noting that the growth rate of China Yikang's domestic sales on behalf of the primary and secondary markets in the same period was only 3.34%. The difference between the two statistical standards mainly comes from the tertiary and tertiary markets. The growth of washing machines in the rural market exceeded expectations, and due to the increase in the limit price of washing machines in the countryside this year, the profits of distributors have been thickened, making the enthusiasm of dealers selling washing machines increase year-on-year. The fourth quarter is recommended to focus on the performance of washing machines in the rural market.

The year-on-year growth of refrigerators in August saw Haier's share stabilize. In August, the sales volume of the refrigerators was 4.677 million units, which represented a year-on-year growth of 19.3%, and a 3.2% increase from the previous period. The double-dip stocking still enabled the chain to grow positively after the traditional off-season, and inventory also fell to 628,000 units, reaching a record low in the past five years. point. In Zhong Yikang’s statistics, Haier’s share stabilized in August, rising from 22.1% to 23.7%.

Shenyin Wanguo believes that it focuses on household appliances leading to higher-than-expected performance, lower valuation, and catalysts. Recommended in turn: Qingdao Haier, Midea Electric, Little Swan, Gree Electric Appliances, Hefei Sanyo and Sanhua.

Car sales from January to September increased 34.9% year-on-year

Yesterday, macroeconomic data was released in September. According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, the data shows that the auto industry is still operating at a high level. The total automobile sales in September was 148 billion yuan, up 29.7% year-on-year; the total automobile sales from January to September was 1.1659 billion yuan, an increase of 34.9% year-on-year.

The Fifth Plenary Session of the 17th CPC Central Committee stated that it is necessary to expand consumer demand so that the coordination of consumption, investment, and exports will drive economic growth. Analysts pointed out that this marked a fundamental change in the long-term model of relying mainly on investment and exports to stimulate economic growth. Consumption will exceed investment and exports and become the primary driving force for China’s economic growth. China is still in the popular period of automobile consumption. Growth is still the mainstay of its development.

The data shows that demand for mid-to-high-end vehicles is relatively strong, and industry capacity utilization is relatively high, and the performance of independent brands is relatively weak. However, with the introduction of the national energy subsidies of 3,000 yuan, the effect will be apparent in the coming months.

As for the rate hike, the industry sources stated that due to the small proportion of purchase of cars through consumer credit (currently less than 10%) and relatively short auto loan repayment cycle, the overall impact on car demand is limited. . The effect of interest rate hike on consumers is mainly reflected in the psychological level.

Since August, the industry data has continued to improve, which has caused the capital market to rectify the miscalculation of the previous industry to a certain degree. Therefore, the share price of the automotive industry has risen sharply since September, resulting from the market's revision and estimation of the company's annual results. The part of the value increases. With the pre-increase of the three quarterly reports, auto companies have almost exceeded the expected profitability of the market. Therefore, with the increase in performance, the valuation of the industry is further reduced. Huatai United Securities believes that with the upward trend of the overall valuation of the A-share market and the optimistic view of the industry's medium and long-term prospects, the auto industry currently has a 13-fold PE valuation ratio with a relatively large margin of safety, based on the current valuation of A-shares. At a level, it is reasonable for the auto industry to obtain a price-earnings ratio of 15-16 times.

The most preferred investment targets recommended by Huatai United Securities in its latest report are Shanghai Automotive, Yueda Investment, Fuzhou Fuwei and Fuyao Glass. At the same time, the investment targets that are expected to continue to beat the market are Weifu Hi-Tech and Jiangling Motors; New Energy Vehicles The investment targets are Shuguang shares and universal money.

Total sales of building materials from January to September increased 31.6% year-on-year

National Bureau of Statistics data show that from January to September, the total sales of construction and decoration materials was 50.2 billion yuan, an increase of 31.6% year-on-year. Among them, the total sales in September reached 7.5 billion yuan, an increase of 39%.

Recently, six ministries and commissions issued notices that Shandong and Ningxia launched a pilot project for building materials to rural areas. The main contents are as follows: 1. At this stage, the cement needed to promote the construction of rural housing is mainly for the countryside; at the same time, it is feasible to explore other building materials such as energy-saving and earthquake-resistance to the countryside. Sex; 2, pilot provinces and autonomous regions between the urban and rural housing construction department with the provincial industrial and information technology, commerce department in charge of the development of the countryside building materials (cement) production and operation of business qualifications, product standards, distribution channel coverage, distribution outlets and other specific requirements, tendering Determine the building materials to the countryside enterprises and make announcements to the society; 3. Promote the building materials to the countryside by local finances to bear related expenditures. The pilot implementation plan will be submitted to six ministries by the end of October. Analysts pointed out that the pilot policy signifies that the “building materials to the countryside” policy has begun to enter the implementation stage and will play a significant role in promoting the building materials industry.
From a short-term perspective, in the fourth quarter, the peak season for the cement industry coincided with local governments implementing energy-conserving power-consumption policies in high-energy-consuming industries. There was a periodic shortage of supply, which increased the driving force for cement price hikes. With the promotion of power limited scope, the scope of price increase will also expand at the same time. The overall price will further increase during the year and the overall profitability of the industry will increase.

In the long run, the policy of strictly controlling new production capacity will not be liberalized in the short term, and at least the new production capacity in the next two years will maintain a rational growth. Taking into account the elimination of backward production capacity, new supply is expected to have negative supply and demand surplus is expected to improve. With the development of mergers and acquisitions in the industry, the industry concentration will be further enhanced, and the pattern dominated by large enterprises will be gradually clarified, and the value of the industry will be improved.

Bohai Securities Research Institute believes that the building materials industry has a valuation enhancement and industry investment value, and maintains a “buy” rating. In the selection of individual stocks, the stock portfolio and the recommended order are Jidong Cement, Conch Cement, Tabei Group, Yatai Group, Qingsong Jianhua, Tianshan Stock and Qilianshan.

At the same time, Bohai Securities researcher believes that the contradiction between production capacity and demand in the flat glass industry is likely to be further intensified, and weak prices cannot pass through the pressure of rising costs of heavy oil and soda ash. The downturn in the industry will continue. In the selection of individual stocks, follow the differentiated route to avoid the flat glass business companies, choose the special glass and related products manufacturing enterprises supported by the industrial policies of the beneficiary countries.

At the same time, under the background of promoting clean energy development and building energy conservation in the country, it is recommended that investors pay attention to CSG A, which owns the solar photovoltaic industry chain and LOW-E coated energy-saving glass, as well as the curtain wall products and engineering construction industry chain, and LOW-E coating energy-saving. Glass business and actively involved in solar photovoltaic glass Sanxin.