The bean market does more enthusiasm and rational return soybeans fall into the downtrend

Under the leadership of U.S. wheat, domestic and foreign agricultural products markets were particularly eye-catching in July and August, and U.S. beans were also able to interpret the rally in less than a month under the support of weather, strong export sales, and Chinese demand support in the two-tiered production areas. The conversion from the bottom of 900 cents to the high of 1,049 cents was completed, but the long-term enthusiasm of the market remained calm in the face of the facts. Judging from the historical pattern of price operation, the harvest of the US soybean futures price is justified and reasonable, and the fall of Soybean that consistently follows the trend will continue.

First, the weather threat is limited The harvest of the US beans can be the focus of the market speculation during the critical period of crop growth, this year's July and August months is no exception. At a time when it was decided that the yield of soybeans would last for a long period of time, the distinctly different climates in the three major US producing regions provided a lot of risk premium for the market. This forced traders to worry that the yield of US soybeans might be damaged. However, is this true? Looking at the growth rate of US beans that have been in a historically high range, we know that the fear of U.S. soybean yield losses is purely superfluous. Of course, the rate of Kai-Ping and the slumping rate in the same period in previous years also added a lot of confidence to us. Judging from the law of yield data of US beans over more than 30 years, after each recovery from lower yields, it generally takes 3 years before the yield reduction occurs, and then in the second year of low yield recovery in 2008/2009. The occurrence of a downward adjustment in yields should be a small probability event. The US Department of Agriculture's August supply and demand report reaffirmed this view of the increase in U.S. soybean yield in 2010/2011. The yield estimate was 44 bushels per acre, which was higher than the previous analyst forecast of 43.2 bushels per acre and the July report estimated 42.9 bushels/acre, 78.9 million acres of planted area was also above 77.5 million acres in 2009/2010. Therefore, as long as the weather is normal in the later period, the high yield of US beans 2010/2011 is just around the corner.

Second, the strong export of US beans exports South American exports fell US soybeans in the previous period In addition to the anxiety caused by the unpredictable climatic detrimental to the yield, the strong inventory demand caused by the old stocks also gave the price a lot of support. Why is there still an inventory shortage in the era of high global production? Is the demand really so strong? Looking at the US export data alone, we can really see the strong export demand. After all, regardless of accumulated sales data from old crops or accumulated sales data from new crops, it can be seen that the US soybean export demand in the past two years is far better than the same period in previous years. As of August 12th, US soybean weekly export sales data showed that US soybean accumulated sales of approximately 42.5 million tons of old crops in 2009/2010, higher than the 36 million tons in 2008/2009; cumulative sales in 2010/2011 is about 1450 Ten thousand tons, higher than the 7.5 million tons in 2008/2009. The high yield of US soybeans has been digested by strong export demand, but is the case of the other two major soybean producing countries and exporting countries? We know that Brazilian and Argentine soybeans in South America in 2009/2010 are also high-yield, but their export sales are not so optimistic. The second largest exporter, Brazil, exported 29,900,000 tons of oil at the time of production cut in 2008/2009, but in 2009/2010, the export volume decreased to 28.35 million tons; fortunately, the third largest exporter Argentina increased by 3.95 million. Ton to 9.5 million tons. However, compared with the United States, South America's newly added production is still far from enough to digest. Therefore, the tight inventory of old crops only appears in the United States, and global soybean supply is still in a relatively loose pattern.

Third, import profits stimulate China's demand in the world under the pressure of high yield, low-yield soybeans continue to impact the Chinese market. Since December of last year, soybeans imported from the United States have consistently maintained a relatively high discount to Soybean. The May contract had an import profit of up to 600 yuan/ton, and the average import profits of 200-300 yuan/ton have also remained for half a year. For a long time, higher import profits in previous years will generally be corrected within a month or two. Driven by the long period of high import profits, domestic imports of soybeans to Hong Kong have increased by the day. In June, the monthly import volume of 6.2 million tons was the highest in history, because high import profits can fully subsidize the crushing losses of oil refineries. In this case, it reached its peak, which also laid a foundation for the rise of international soybean prices in July. However, everything has a degree. When the import volume in July fell to 4.95 million tons, the port inventory is still no less than 6 million tons. It tells us that the acceptance capacity of Chinese oil plants is really not so strong. China's demand may not be as imaginable. Wang. The demand for imported soybeans in China cannot digest the increase in soybean production due to global high yields. Therefore, it is too early to rely on China's demand to promote soaring international soybean prices, which is hard to see at least in the high-yield era.

Fourth, the seasonal law to suppress the price decline will inevitably no matter from the US soybean November contract or the historical price trend law from the Soybean main contract, August is often the relative low point of the soybean monthly price, why is it in August? Since August is usually the date for the determination of soybean grain yield in the Northern Hemisphere, the true and false weather threats during the growth phase of soybeans will be verified at this time, and the yielded field survey data will be more credible, reflecting the actual price. Naturally, there is a rational fall in the price of imaginary high prices. This law is even more referential in the years when soybeans are growing well.

Fifth, the US soybean price contract in November running a good harvest of the United States is in sight, the price is adjusted to meet the price of the law. It is expected that Soybeans will continue to follow the downward trend of the stocks in the port where the inventory is high and domestic stocks are abundant.