Subtle changes in the bulk crude drug market

The ups and downs of bulk APIs in the first half of this year were naturally topics that the 65th API China could not avoid. What is more noteworthy is that the raw material drug industry chain is undergoing subtle changes in this round of ups and downs, and hidden behind these changes is the deep requirements of industrial transformation.

According to Shen Xianji, deputy director of the Expert Committee of the China Chemical Pharmaceutical Industry Association, in the first half of this year, the output of 24 categories of chemical raw materials increased by 20% year-on-year, and the amount of exports increased by 20.3% year-on-year; the output of major categories of 24 categories of chemical raw materials was all presented year-on-year. In the growth trend, the export volume of the 19 major categories increased year-on-year. Of the 4 cephalosporins listed in the Essential Drug List, the production of ceftriaxone sodium drug substance increased by 15% year-on-year, while the production of cefazolin was almost the same, while cefalexin decreased by 32.8% year-on-year.

The most interesting thing is vitamins. In the first half of this year, the output of vitamins increased by 16% year-on-year, and the supply of exports increased by 5%. The quarterly output increased by 7.9% from the previous month and the export volume increased by 8.5%. Among them, vitamin C and salt production in the first half of 57,000 tons, an increase of 5%, exports 33,000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 4.3%; according to customs data show that the first half of this year, the average price of vitamin C exports fell 17.5%, from the same period in the first half $ 10.33 per kilogram, down to $ 8.49.

At the same time, the raw material drug market information conference held in the same month, health net chief researcher Wu Huifang pointed out that the bulk of this year's bulk drug exports is characterized by an exclusive, scarce raw material prices continue to rise, such as heparin sodium; but at the same time, other advantages However, due to overcapacity or excessive competition, the APIs have caused export prices to decline or transactions have shrunk, such as VC and penicillin industrial salt.

At the same time, Wu Huifang believes that a comprehensive analysis of market competition should be conducted from the perspective of the industry chain, and can not be simply analyzed from the price or a certain link.

Take heparin sodium as an example. From the industrial chain perspective, in the heparin sodium industrial chain, there will be large-scale intensive aquaculture enterprises in the area of ​​small intestine deep processing, which will directly expand into crude products; in the downstream application areas, the development of heparin substitutes will be accelerated in the face of rising prices; In the middle part of the industrial chain, raw material drug manufacturers have the tendency to integrate large-scale resources and expand into the international market, as well as shift to the field of raw materials and low-molecular-weight heparin sodium preparations. Based on this analysis, the future competitiveness will be reflected in the entire industry chain from the collection of small intestine sources and crude products to preparations and exports, not just the midstream production.

For the VC industry, Wu Huifang pointed out that its upstream sorbitol production companies intend to extend downstream with high added value in order to get rid of the production cycle instability risk brought about by the limited production shutdown of downstream VC manufacturers. Similarly, downstream VC derivatives manufacturers are also interested in Into the upstream, its potential new capacity has reached 60,000 tons, and the VC industry will once again face ups and downs. Expanding domestic demand and stimulating consumption may be the solution.

The contradiction between supply and demand also appeared on erythromycin thiocyanate, but it was reflected in supply shortage and price increase. Since April of this year, the external quotation of this species has been maintained at a historical high of US$70/BOU. The increase in the price of erythromycin thiocyanate also increased the prices of downstream azithromycin, roxithromycin and clarithromycin.

Wu Huifang believes that, on the surface, the supply of erythromycin thiocyanate is caused by the conversion of production capacity from offshore production to production, strong downstream demand, and insufficient release of existing production capacity. However, in fact, erythromycin thiocyanate is used in the fermentation liquid extraction process. The need to consume large amounts of solvents in the process led to a large amount of pollutants. Under the pressure of environmental protection, the original production capacity of production enterprises was insufficiently released, and the capacity utilization rate was only 50%. At the same time, some companies have begun to launch new production lines, and the contradiction between the newly added capacity and the insufficiency of the original capacity has begun to lurk. In other words, it is environmental pressure to hold the erythromycin thiocyanate "neck."

In addition to environmental pressures, changes in the exchange rate of the renminbi and rising raw material energy prices all pose severe challenges to the raw material medicine industry. In this regard, Shen Xianji believes that while companies are doing everything possible to maintain their market share in Europe and the United States, they must increase their share of sales in emerging markets and domestic markets, from price competition adjustment to differentiated competition, from the use of multinational corporations' global supply chain system adjustments to independent marketing. To meet the needs of different market development and competitiveness adjustments, and to develop internal forces to achieve further development.