Analysis of Future Development Trends of Global Vaccine Market

According to a recent PharmaLive survey, the global vaccine market is expected to reach $34 billion in 2012. And in the next five years, the market will surpass the rate of development of anti-tumor drugs, and will grow at an annual rate of 14%. Therefore, it will undoubtedly become the fastest growing field in the global pharmaceutical industry over the same period.

The reason why the vaccine market is showing soaring development is that the continuous increase in global vaccine demand, the ever-changing biotechnology level, and the strong promotion of the new vaccine market are the main driving factors. While optimistic about the huge potential of the vaccine market, many pharmaceutical companies have also chosen various forms of cooperation and development in the hope that the future will be able to get a cup in this market, so in the next five years, the vaccine will become an important part of promoting the development of the global pharmaceutical market new force. For the domestic market, due to the steady increase in demand, the strengthening of the public’s immunization concept, and the government’s policy guidance and support, the vaccine market will also develop and grow at high speed in a good environment.

Unmet treatment needs to be filled

As we all know, the impact of vaccines on global health care and economic development is enormous. Since the world began to drink clean water, the vaccine has successfully saved many people's lives, but this is what any other health intervention can not achieve. According to the statistics of the US Centers for Disease Control (CDC), in the United States, many fatal diseases have not been ravaged. At least 90% of the credit is due to the vaccines that people vaccinated during childhood. The immune effects make those diseases “useless”, thus avoiding multiple health crises.

Recent advances in immunological research, increasing emphasis on preventive medicine, and the shift from researching small molecule drugs to the development of novel and unique biopharmaceutical products are the main factors in the development of the global vaccine market. In recent years, as influenza has rampant around the world, effective vaccination has become an effective means of quickly establishing a population's immune barrier and blocking the spread of the influenza pandemic. As a result, countries have stepped up the pace of development of their vaccines in an attempt to make this happen. The threat and impact of the flu crisis are minimized. However, so far, only in the different flu seasons, only the vaccines developed for this season's specific virus strain can really withstand the invasion of the flu, which means that human demand for influenza vaccine is unable to saturate and persist. When quarterly vaccines are listed on the market, whether they are honored to complete the inoculation mission, or be delivered to the market, or used for strategic reserves, have directly or indirectly promoted the development of the entire vaccine market.

In addition, despite the fact that vaccines are more and more widely used today in the prevention and treatment of many diseases, so far, there are still a large number of unmet treatment needs to be filled, such as the diseases of children in some developing countries. Many chronic diseases such as diabetes, cancer, and diseases that are widely spread under certain conditions or whose disease rates are steadily increasing include HIV/AIDS, meningitis, and dengue fever. With the increase of social economy and the improvement of health care, people’s awareness of immune prevention will gradually increase. There is no doubt that those unmet treatment needs are also increasing, and this is also a strong guarantee for the rapid development of the vaccine market.

Fastest growth in the vaccine field in the next 5 years

In 2009, the global preventive vaccine market reached 22.1 billion U.S. dollars, compared with 19 billion U.S. dollars in 2008. Vaccine operating business is not without risk, but for some pharmaceutical companies, the vaccine is the only bright spot in its 2009 product portfolio, so the substantial growth of the vaccine market is not surprising, and it will also help to promote Market growth in the next five years. According to PharmaLive's forecast, the global vaccine market is expected to reach US$34 billion in 2012, and in the next five years, the market will surpass the development rate of anti-tumor medicines, with an annual growth rate of 14%, so there will be no doubt that It has become the fastest growing field in the global pharmaceutical industry during the same period.

According to a recent U.S. report from Evaluate Pharma, children vaccines are expected to take off in the global vaccine market in the next five years, and will increase steadily at an annual rate of 14.2%. By 2013, their market sales will reach 18.8 billion U.S. dollars. . Child vaccine market and development forecast from 2004 to 2013 are shown in Figure 1.

In the field of children's vaccines, pneumococcus and diphtheria-tetanus toxoid-acellular pertussis vaccines will become the main factors that will promote the rapid development of the market. The market sales performance and compound annual growth rate of the main varieties of vaccines for children in the next five years are shown in Table 1.



At the same time, the adult vaccine market will not be outdone. It will maintain a compound annual growth rate of around 12%, and by 2013, the market value will reach US$17.6 billion. The global adult vaccine market and development forecast from 2004 to 2013 are shown in Figure 2.



The main growth drivers for the adult vaccine market will come from the introduction of new products and consumer acceptance of them, and the good market performance of influenza and hepatitis vaccines is also an important boost factor. Table 2 shows the market sales performance and composite annual growth rate of the major adult vaccines in the next five years. Among them, due to the global outbreak of influenza A(H1N1) in 2009, the huge market demand has strongly stimulated the continuous growth of the influenza vaccine market, so it is estimated that between 2009 and 2011, the adult influenza vaccine market will exceed US$7 billion. By 2013, the market will continue to grow steadily year by year.

Currently, given the rapid development of the global vaccine market, the world's largest pharmaceutical companies, including Pfizer and GlaxoSmithKline, have all increased their competitiveness to seek greater market share, so it is inevitable that future vaccines The intensity of market competition will also become more intense.

Flexible forms of cooperation open up more market space

Needless to say, the development of the market can not be separated from the product development and innovation. In the vaccine field, many potential innovative vaccines are mainly derived from some emerging companies, and they have become one of the main factors driving the development of the entire vaccine industry. Therefore, more and more large-scale vaccine companies are now tending to adopt cooperation. Way to develop.

Looking at the giants of the global vaccine companies at this stage, in the early stages of development, they all chose to cooperate in the development of this effective and efficient R&D model. This model mainly cooperates with small and medium-sized biotechnology companies, professional pharmaceutical companies, and research institutes. The latter has potential products and is expected to obtain approvals, or is in the process of approval. Cooperative development not only ensures product quality, but also reduces development costs. From a long-term perspective, these partners have also realized that there are still a large number of public health needs that have not yet been met. Therefore, through cooperative development, not only can the pace of development of new vaccines be accelerated, but also a larger market can be found and opened up. space.

In addition, as the industry continues to evolve and evolve, various types of cooperation opportunities and forms of cooperation are gradually increasing. The UK’s GSK and the “Fondation Oswaldo Cruz” Foundation in Brazil Another example is the cooperation of FIOCRUZ. The two reached a unanimous agreement for the joint development and production of vaccines, aiming to give priority to the solution of public health problems in South America.

Biosimilar vaccines and improved vaccines boost the market

Although it is in a highly competitive pharmaceutical market, the vaccine sector has the characteristics of high barriers to entry and extremely expensive development costs, so it will not be caught in a vicious competition in the market. In addition, unlike small-molecule chemical drugs, the most controversial imitation of vaccines lies in how to give the most appropriate definition of the product's bioequivalence, and its own specificity determines that the bioequivalence problem cannot be solved. In a general sense, together with the introduction of federal legislative protection policies, these factors have made the vaccine market relatively less competitive.

In the future, with the development of the biotechnology industry, vaccine products will become more refined, and the vaccine industry will likely develop toward biosimilar vaccines and bio-improved vaccines. By then, India and China will be competitors in this emerging field. In the past, these two countries have demonstrated a strong level of technology in the production of generic versions of old vaccines, and India is now working hard to emerge as the world's largest producer of imitation vaccines. Therefore, in the future, as the above-mentioned two countries continue to improve their capabilities in the imitation of new technologies for vaccines, the global biosimilar vaccine and bio-improved vaccine market will be further explored and promoted. This will also become a development of the vaccine market. Booster.

Chinese vaccine will grow rapidly in a good environment

In China, the size of the vaccine market at this stage is about 5 billion yuan, and the annual growth rate is maintained at about 15%, which is higher than the global level of 13%. It is estimated that by 2012, the scale of China's vaccine market will reach 12 billion yuan. Support for the rapid growth of the Chinese vaccine industry mainly includes three aspects:

First, the steady increase in demand is the basic guarantee for the development of the vaccine industry. In 2009, the number of newborns in China was 16.15 million, and the birth rate was 12.13 ‰. Although in the long term, the birth rate of the Chinese population will show a downward trend in the future, in the short term, the population base will continue to expand and the childbearing age The number of women will continue to be at a high level in the short term. Therefore, in the next five years, the number of Chinese newborns will continue to remain at a stable high level. Child immunization is currently the most important component of the domestic vaccine market. Therefore, stable demand has led to continued growth in the vaccine industry.

Second, the public’s concept of immunity is strengthened. With the growth of the economy and the improvement of the level of health care, the public’s awareness of immune prevention is also gradually escalating. In particular, recently, some vaccine products have appeared in television and outdoor media in the form of public service advertisements, which is of great help to the popularization of public immunization concepts.

Finally, the government's policy orientation supports the healthy development of the vaccine industry. The Chinese government has paid more and more attention to disease prevention and immune management. Since February 2008, the Ministry of Health issued the “Implementation Plan for Expanding the National Immunization Plan.” Prior to this, the country’s annual investment in planned immunization was only 218 million yuan. After the expansion of immunization programs, the annual financial investment will increase to 28 Billion yuan. Guided by such an approach, China's vaccine industry will surely grow rapidly in a good soil.

Looking into the future, due to the development of human disease spectrum, increasing demand for vaccines, and the continuous improvement of biotechnology, vaccines will play an increasingly prominent role in the prevention and treatment of diseases. With the new generation of innovative products being successfully introduced to the market, and these products will not bear the pressure of patent expiration in the short term, it can be predicted that in the next few years, both domestic and domestic, the vaccine market will show A thriving scene.

The overall improvement of the level of technology and innovation

At one time, the rise of chemical synthetic drugs and the antibiotic industry made the vaccine once paralyzed by the eyes of major pharmaceutical companies, resulting in its technological lag and slow development. However, in recent years, there has been little breakthrough in the field of chemical drug development. In the face of the dual pressures of economic development and treatment demand, many pharmaceutical companies have once again turned their attention to the vaccine field. They have increased their investment in development and their efforts in order to reverse their potential to undermine the product's weakness. This, in turn, positively promoted the improvement of vaccine development technology and innovation capabilities.

In the field of vaccines, the biggest breakthrough in recent years has been the adoption of "autologous cell immunotherapy." The therapy aims to stimulate the patient's own immune system to improve its response to cancer. It mainly stimulates the patient's immune system to allow the body to play its biggest role in cancer treatment, thus avoiding the use of chemotherapy, radiotherapy and other biological agents to bring Side effects. At the end of the treatment period, its anti-cancer activity can be maintained for a long time. Dendreon’s personalized prostate cancer vaccine, Provenge (Sipuleucel-T), is an important representative of the therapy. It was first approved by the FDA in May 2010 and was the first of its kind to be approved for listing. The successful development of the product not only means that humans have discovered a new cancer treatment method with a new mechanism of action, but also added a new choice for the development of cancer combination therapy programs. Therefore, it can be said that the listing of Provenge has created a new era of vaccine oncology.

The application of the new drug release technology in the vaccine field is also a manifestation of the perfect combination of technology and innovation. Its development will not only help the drug reach the target, improve patient compliance, but also increase the safety of the drug. For example, nanoemulsion is a new formulation that is mixed with oil and water and administered via the nasal cavity. Experiments show that nanoemulsion can make the body produce a strong immune response, so as to achieve effective treatment of smallpox and HIV. In fact, any bacterial or viral disease that can cause an immune response can be a candidate for the development of nanoemulsion vaccines.

In addition, BiondVax is currently developing a new type of influenza vaccine with patent protection. This vaccine has the potential for multi-seasonal multi-tension protection and can be used as a universal vaccine to prevent seasonal flu and global flu. Once successfully developed, the universal influenza vaccine may be a public preventive vaccine that can effectively control the flu pandemic and spontaneous influenza pandemic. At the same time, human papillomavirus (HPV) and meningitis vaccination are worth looking forward to, because the competition in these therapeutic areas is also heating up.

High concentration vaccine market competition

As we all know, in the global context, although nearly 20 pharmaceutical companies have been recognized as vaccine manufacturers by the World Health Organization (WHO), the main market game has been firmly controlled by several pharmaceutical giants, so the market is quite concentrated. Taking 2009 as an example, the top five companies in this market are British GlaxoSmithKline, French Sanofi-Pasteur, Merck, U.S. Pfizer (Wyeth) and Swiss Novartis. The five companies together accounted for 81.2% of the global vaccine market, and the remaining vaccine companies struggled in less than 20% of the market.

Among the top five vaccine companies in 2009, GlaxoSmithKline ranks first with a 24.9% share, thanks to the impressive sales of its Flu products Fluvarix and Hiberix; closely followed It is Aventis Pasteur with a market share of 20.8%; Merck ranks third with 15.6% market share; Pfizer (Wyeth) and Novartis share with 11.4% and 8.5% respectively. Ranked fourth and fifth. In 2009, Novartis' strong growth was mainly attributed to its expansion of vaccines for forest encephalitis, flu vaccines, and children's immune products in the field of vaccines and diagnostic reagents, resulting in annual sales of up to 1.9 billion U.S. dollars. Nevertheless, looking at the company's strength in the entire vaccine market, it still lags behind the other four strong competitors.